Last week, EURUSD closed at 1.1716, just a few pips below
the week before, however market action was rich and intense.
Last Monday we saw the pair reaching as high as 1.1900, only
to recover during the week and later test 1.1660 after the
NFP on Friday. The week was marked by a lot of U.S. economic
reports, the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday (a 25bp
hike, as expected) and finally the employment data from the
U.S. on Friday (which showed a healthy figure of 215.000).
This week, as the market still evaluates the rich data
from last week and establishes new positions, we can expect
the mid-term downtrend in USD to resume its course and reach
new lows in the 1.15 area, then possibly even lower, below
1.14. End of the year is approaching and the dollar may gather
strength for a last final battle. On 4h charts we can see
the pair forming a channel started at 1.1860, with current
bottom holding at Friday's low of 1.1660. If this technical
pattern is respected and the current ceiling around 1.1740
holds, we may expect the channel to gain in importance and
later support the breakout below 1.1635, pushing EURUSD towards
1.15 on an accelerated move. Possible EUR gains could first
target 1.1750 (38.2 retracement of the recent 1.1900 - 1.1660
wave), then 1.18. Again, failure to breach above the first
resistance level will confirm once more the bearish sentiment
for the pair.
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